Volume: ANEMIC (holiday liquidity death). VanEck’s annual outlook predicts Bitcoin will be “TOP PERFORMER in 2026” despite 2025 disaster. Liquidity returning = BTC “responds sharply.” But Matthew Sigel warns: “2026 more likely consolidation than melt-up or collapse. Four-year cycle peaked Oct 2025. Volatility dropped 50%, implying 40% drawdown already absorbed 35%.”

MicroStrategy (holding 446,400 BTC worth $39 billion+) is going to get kicked out of indexes for holding... the best-performing asset class of the past decade. 60% chance MSCI excludes (they rarely back down from proposals). 30% chance modified threshold (75% instead of 50%) or grandfather clause. 10% chance full reversal. Either way, volatility guaranteed around Jan 15 announcement.