XRP Trade of the Week
January 6, 2026
Bitcoin trading $93,700 (+7% since Jan 1, approaching critical $95K resistance). Ethereum at $3,224 (+9% since Jan 1, smashing through resistance levels). XRP LEADING the charge at $2.40 (+29% week, +13% TODAY).
TOM LEE BOMBSHELL: Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC Monday: 'I don't think Bitcoin has peaked yet. Bitcoin can hit a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH by end of January 2026.' That's THIS MONTH. Current ATH: $126,000 from October 2025. Current price: $93,700. That's 34% move in 25 days. Lee also said: 'Ethereum is dramatically undervalued—entering a SUPERCYCLE similar to Bitcoin 2017-2021.' BitMine now holds 4.14M ETH.
XRP ETF EXPLOSION: RECORD $46M single-day inflows January 6th (highest since launch). Total XRP ETF assets now $1.65B. 30 consecutive days positive inflows through December with ZERO outflows—fastest crypto ETF to $1B after Bitcoin. Exchange balances dropped to 8-YEAR LOWS (1.6B tokens from 3.76B October). Supply squeeze playing out LIVE.
THE MOMENTUM: More than $121M short positions liquidated past 4 hours vs <$9M longs. Venezuela headlines + year-start allocations + ETF inflows = PERFECT STORM. Market cap above $3.2T. Crypto outperforming ALL asset classes week-to-date. Gold $4,400+, silver surging, Asian equities at records—risk-ON environment confirmed.
I. BREAKING HEADLINES & GAME-CHANGING CATALYSTS
• TOM LEE: BITCOIN NEW ATH BY END OF JANUARY 2026
The Call: 'I don't think Bitcoin has peaked yet,' Lee told CNBC Monday. 'We were overly optimistic achieving high-water mark before December, but I DO believe Bitcoin can hit new all-time high by END OF JANUARY 2026.' Current ATH: $126,000 (October 2025). Current price: $93,700. Gap: 34%.
2026 Outlook: '2026 is going to be year of two halves. First half may be tough as we deal with institutional rebalancing and strategic reset, but that volatility sets stage for MASSIVE RALLY we expect in back half.' Reset = digestion phase, NOT structural weakness. Setting up for H2 explosion.
The Mechanism: Lee emphasizes 'untapped demand': millions of funded Bitcoin wallets vs HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of traditional investment accounts. Adoption runway 200x larger if even MODEST allocations flow from retirement/brokerage platforms. ETFs removing access barriers. Distribution gap = massive opportunity.
S&P 500 Forecast: Lee also projects S&P 7,700 by end 2026 (from ~6,000 now). 'Fundamental strength of U.S. economy and AI-driven productivity gains.' Bullish on EVERYTHING risk-on. If equities rally, crypto FLIES.
Trading Intelligence: Lee's TIMING often early but DIRECTION usually correct. He missed $200K 2025 target but correctly called new ATH at $126K. Now calling for ATH THIS MONTH. If institutions front-run this, rally accelerates. $95K break = path to $126K+ clear.
• XRP RECORD ETF INFLOWS - $46M SINGLE DAY, SUPPLY SHOCK CONFIRMED
The Record: January 6th spot XRP ETFs recorded $46M net inflows—HIGHEST SINGLE-DAY since launch. Led by Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Canary Capital. Total XRP ETF assets now $1.65B. Cumulative $1.3B in just 50 days (second-fastest to $1B after Bitcoin).
The Streak: 43 consecutive trading days of net positive inflows before hitting first zero-inflow day Dec 26. NO outflow days. NO redemption spikes. Just steady institutional accumulation. December alone: $483M inflows while BTC bled $1.09B, ETH lost $564M. XRP = institutional favorite.
Supply Dynamics: Exchange-held XRP dropped 60% from 3.95B to 1.6B tokens (8-YEAR LOWS). ETFs now hold 746M XRP (1.14% circulating supply). Each $1B locks ~500M XRP (0.76% supply). If $500M/month sustains, ETFs remove 2.9B XRP by year-end (4.4% supply). This + exchange withdrawal = SPRING LOADED.
Price Action: XRP surged 13% TODAY to $2.40, up 29% on week. Broke $2.28 resistance with conviction. Next test: $2.50-$2.68 zone. Analyst targets: break $2.68 → $3.40. Support $2.10/$1.90. Trading volume EXPLODING as retail capitulation (selling at $1.85) proves to be exact bottom.
Institutional Validation: Standard Chartered maintains $8 XRP target 2026 (requires $18.6B additional capital). If ETF inflows sustain $500M+/month, $4-$5 by year-end viable. This is Bitcoin 2024 ETF playbook: steady accumulation → supply shock → explosive rally when demand returns.
• ETHEREUM ENTERING 'SUPERCYCLE' - TOM LEE + BITMINE 4.14M ETH
The Thesis: 'Our belief is that Ethereum is dramatically undervalued,' Lee said Monday. 'We believe ETH is entering a SUPERCYCLE similar to Bitcoin from 2017 to 2021.' That run: BTC $1,000 → $69,000 (69x). ETH currently $3,224. Supercycle implies $20K-$30K+ targets.
BitMine Accumulation: Tom Lee's firm BitMine Immersion Technologies now holds 4.14M ETH (added $88.73M recently). This represents strategic positioning, not speculation. Lee: 'Acquiring asset that can appreciate 10x or more is strategic NECESSITY for any modern treasury.' Conviction = skin in game.
Fund Flows Confirm: ETH led 2025 fund inflows with $12.7B (+138% YoY vs BTC down 35%). ETH now OUTPACING Bitcoin in institutional interest. January showing continued strength with ETH +9% vs BTC +7% = relative outperformance continuing.
Technical Structure: ETH broke $3,200 decisively, now testing $3,224. Tightening wedge structure with rising trendline from Nov 21 lows. Next resistance $3,300-$3,400 zone. 200 EMA at $3,350-$3,400 = major test. Break above triggers path to Dec 11 high $3,450 → $3,800 → $4,000+.
• $121M SHORT LIQUIDATIONS - SQUEEZE ACCELERATING
The Cascade: Past 4 hours: $121M short positions liquidated vs <$9M longs. Classic squeeze mechanics: price rises → shorts forced to cover → buying pressure accelerates rally. Hyperliquid data: shorts 54.4% of liquidations vs 45.6% longs. Bears getting CRUSHED.
Weekend Setup: Stock markets closed = crypto only major market trading. Limited alternatives = buying activity flowed into digital assets. Prices climbed faster than usual with concentrated liquidity. BTC gained $2,500 from recent lows, clearing $91K resistance.
Derivatives Impact: When prices rise quickly, traders betting on fall (shorts) forced to exit = extra buying pressure. Chain reaction helps push BTC, ETH, XRP higher simultaneously. This creates momentum that feeds on itself until positioning unwinds.
• INSTITUTIONAL INFLOWS RESUME - FIRST TIME IN WEEKS
The Shift: 'Final trading days 2025 and opening sessions 2026 delivered cautious but constructive reset for crypto markets,' said Timothy Misir (BRN). 'Spot ETF inflows returned across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, helping stabilize prices in thin holiday liquidity.' Institutional flows turned DECISIVELY positive first time in weeks.
What Changed: Fresh new-year allocations + safe-haven bids + Venezuela headlines = mix driving rally. 'This spot move is likely mix of fresh risk budgets being put to work, rotation from outperforming assets, and flow into hard assets,' said Jeff Anderson (STS Digital). Institutions deploying capital.
Critical Watch: 'Upcoming ETF flow prints will be CRITICAL in determining whether nascent recovery can attract fresh institutional capital or whether caution continues to dominate positioning,' Bitfinex analysts said. This week's data = make or break for momentum continuation.
II. ACTIONABLE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PROFIT MAXIMIZATION
BITCOIN (BTC) - Current: $93,700
Price Action: +7% since Jan 1 | +1% 24h | Approaching $95K critical resistance
CRITICAL SETUP - Tom Lee's New ATH Call + Technical Breakout:
• The Catalyst: Tom Lee's Monday CNBC call for NEW ATH by end January 2026 provides narrative fuel. Current $93,700 → $126,000 ATH = 34% move. That's achievable in 25 days IF momentum sustains and $95K breaks.
• Key Level $95K: BTC approaching THE resistance that's capped gains for weeks. Break above with volume = path clears to $100K → $105K → $110K. This is where traders positioned all weekend are targeting exits—absorption here critical.
• Pattern: Ascending channel intact. Higher lows since $85K December low: $85K → $88K → $90K → $93K. Upper channel resistance $95K-$97K. Measured move from channel = $102K-$105K initial target.
• Volume: Trading volumes remain moderate but institutional participation evident. Real test comes when traditional markets fully return. If BTC holds above $91K through week, rally continues.
Technical Indicators:
• RSI: Daily 64.8 (strong momentum, not overbought yet). Room to 70+ before overheated.
• MACD: Bullish crossover + histogram expanding. Momentum building steadily.
• Moving Averages: Price above 20/50-day MAs. 100-day at $95.4K = immediate test. 200-day $98.2K = major target.
• Support Structure: S1: $91,000 (weekend breakout level, must hold) | S2: $88,500 (critical) | S3: $85,000 (breakdown)
• Resistance: R1: $95,000 (THE level) | R2: $100,000 (psychological + options) | R3: $105,000 | R4: $110,000 (path to ATH)
THIS WEEK'S BTC PLAYBOOK:
PRIMARY SETUP (75% probability): Break & Hold $95K → Run to $105K-$110K
• Entry Zone: $92.5K-$94K on ANY dip (current $93.7K = acceptable). Add 20% more on $95K break confirmation.
• Stop Loss: $90,000 (below weekend lows, invalidates Tom Lee thesis)
• Target 1: $100,000 (take 30%). Psychological + $100K call options. High probability.
• Target 2: $105,000 (take 30%). Measured move + institutional targets.
• Target 3: $110,000-$115,000 (let 40% run). Path to Tom Lee's $126K+ ATH.
• R/R Ratio: 5:1 to T1, 9:1 to T2, 15:1 to T3. EXCEPTIONAL.
• Position Size: FULL+ (110%). Tom Lee ATH call + technicals + ETF flows = rare alignment.
• Timeline: If $95K breaks this week, $100K by next week. $105K+ by end January. Tom Lee's timeframe.
CRITICAL EXECUTION:
• Watch $95K like HAWK: 4-hour close above = BUY signal. Add to position immediately.
• If rejection at $95K: Don't panic. Consolidation $92K-$95K for 2-3 days normal before next leg.
• If daily close <$91K: Exit immediately. Wait for $88K-$90K to re-enter.
ETHEREUM (ETH) - Current: $3,224
Price Action: +9% since Jan 1 | +2% 24h | Tom Lee 'SUPERCYCLE' backing
GAME-CHANGING SETUP - Tom Lee Supercycle Call + BitMine 4.14M ETH:
• Tom Lee Thesis: 'ETH is dramatically undervalued—entering SUPERCYCLE similar to Bitcoin 2017-2021.' That run = 69x. Current $3,224 → supercycle implies $20K-$30K+ multi-year targets. Lee backing thesis with 4.14M ETH position ($13.3B at $3,224).
• Compression Wedge: ETH trading in tightening structure. Rising trendline from Nov 21 lows + descending resistance from Sep-Oct highs = wedge apex IMMINENT. Breakout above $3,300 triggers expansion toward $3,800+.
• Fund Flow Dominance: $12.7B inflows 2025 (+138% YoY) while BTC down 35%. ETH now institutional FAVORITE. This is structural shift, not temporary. Capital rotation from BTC → ETH accelerating.
Technical Indicators:
• RSI: 68.2 (strong momentum, entering 'trending' phase)
• MACD: Bullish + expanding histogram. Crossover confirmed and strengthening.
• EMAs: Price testing 20/50 EMAs. 200 EMA $3,350-$3,400 = major overhead. Break above = explosive.
• Volume: $36.8B (24h). Institutional participation CLEAR.
Key Levels:
• Support: S1: $3,150 | S2: $3,000 (psychological, must hold) | S3: $2,960
• Resistance: R1: $3,300 (wedge breakout) | R2: $3,400 (200 EMA) | R3: $3,450 (Dec high) | R4: $3,800-$4,000
THIS WEEK'S ETH PLAYBOOK:
PRIMARY SETUP (80% probability): Wedge Breakout → $3,800+
• Entry: $3,180-$3,240 (current zone IDEAL). Add on $3,300 break.
• Stop Loss: $3,050 (below wedge support, invalidates pattern)
• Target 1: $3,450 (take 25%). Dec 11 high retest.
• Target 2: $3,800 (take 35%). Elliott Wave + whale accumulation target.
• Target 3: $4,200-$4,500 (let 40% run). Supercycle early innings.
• R/R Ratio: 4:1 to T1, 8:1 to T2, 12:1 to T3.
• Position Size: MAXIMUM (120%). Tom Lee supercycle call + BitMine 4.14M ETH + fund flow dominance = ONCE-IN-CYCLE setup.
CRITICAL CATALYST WATCH:
• Fusaka upgrade Q1 approaching (scalability boost)
• RWA tokenization accelerating (JPMorgan, BlackRock deploying)
• DeFi renaissance beginning (87% DEX dominance)
ALTCOIN EXPLOSION - HIGH-CONVICTION PLAYS
XRP - THE Trade of the Week
Current: $2.40 | +13% TODAY | +29% week | LEADING all large caps
Why THIS Is THE Moment:
• Record ETF inflows: $46M single day (highest ever). Total $1.65B assets. ZERO outflows since launch.
• Supply shock: Exchange balances 8-year lows (1.6B from 3.76B). ETFs locking supply. Spring-loaded for explosion.
• Retail capitulation: Sold at $1.85, XRP now $2.40. Classic bottom signal—pessimism was BUY.
• Institutional quality: Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Canary = pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth. This is SERIOUS money.
Technical Setup:
• Broke $2.28 resistance with CONVICTION + volume
• Falling wedge breakout confirmed (multi-month consolidation)
• RSI 64 (strong but not extended)
• Next test: $2.50-$2.68 zone
Analyst Targets:
• Break $2.68 → $3.40 (65% upside)
• Standard Chartered: $8 by year-end (needs $18.6B capital)
• Conservative: $4-$5 if ETF inflows sustain $500M/month
STRATEGY - MAXIMUM CONVICTION:
• Entry: $2.30-$2.45 (current zone GIFT). Add on $2.70 break.
• Stop: $2.05 (below breakout, invalidates)
• Targets: $2.85 (20%) → $3.40 (40%) → $4.00-$4.50 (40%)
• Size: 60% of normal position (larger than typical altcoin)
• R/R: 5:1 to T1, 10:1 to T3. THIS IS THE SWING TRADE.
SOLANA (SOL) - Momentum Building
Current: $137-$138 | +12% recent surge
Setup: SOL rose 12% breaking key resistance. Trading volume elevated. Fund inflows $3.6B 2025 (+1,000% YoY). Firedancer deployed, ETFs approved. Ascending triangle breakout confirmed above $135.
Levels: Support $133/$130 | Resistance $140/$145 | Target $150-$160 initial, $200+ medium-term
STRATEGY: Long $135-$140, stop $130, target $150/$160/$200. Size: 40%. R/R: 4:1.
DOGECOIN (DOGE) - Meme Season Confirmed
Current: $0.1496 | +17% week leading meme rally
Setup: DOGE gained most among major tokens week-to-date. Golden cross confirmed. Meme season igniting as retail FOMO returns. PEPE, PENGU also surging. Historical pattern: memes lead final altseason phase.
STRATEGY: Speculation only. Long $0.145-$0.15, stop $0.135, target $0.18/$0.21. Size: 20% (HIGH RISK). Could go parabolic.
CARDANO (ADA) - Fundamentals + Momentum
Current: $0.42 | +5.5% 24h | Sustained gains
Catalysts: Midnight mainnet Q1, Leios upgrade (thousands TPS), NIGHT token >$1B cap. Technical upgrades accelerating.
STRATEGY: Long $0.40-$0.43, stop $0.37, target $0.50/$0.60. Size: 30%. Medium-term hold.
III. SMART MONEY SENTIMENT & INSTITUTIONAL SIGNALS
Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global Advisors): 'I don't think Bitcoin has peaked yet. Bitcoin can hit NEW ALL-TIME HIGH by end of January 2026. We were overly optimistic before December, but I DO believe this. 2026 is year of two halves—first half tough with institutional rebalancing, but volatility sets stage for MASSIVE RALLY back half.'
Tom Lee on Ethereum (Fundstrat/BitMine Chairman): 'Ethereum is dramatically undervalued. We believe ETH is entering SUPERCYCLE similar to Bitcoin 2017-2021. Acquiring asset that can appreciate 10x or more is strategic NECESSITY for any modern treasury.' [BitMine now holds 4.14M ETH]
Timothy Misir (BRN Research): 'Final trading days 2025 and opening 2026 delivered cautious but constructive reset. Bitcoin consolidated below key resistance while institutional flows turned DECISIVELY POSITIVE for first time in weeks. Spot ETF inflows returned across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP.'
Jeff Anderson (STS Digital, Head of Asia): 'This spot move is likely mix of fresh risk budgets being put to work, rotation from outperforming assets, and flow into hard assets on Venezuela headlines. Washington's Venezuela shock serves as near-term catalyst for BTC. Disinflationary impulse from lower oil prices allows central banks to cut rates rapidly.'
Bitfinex Analysts: 'Upcoming ETF flow prints will be CRITICAL in determining whether nascent recovery can attract fresh institutional capital or whether caution continues to dominate positioning. Savvy traders positioning for continued price rally in near term.'
Standard Chartered (XRP Analysis): 'Improving U.S. regulatory clarity has made it easier for institutions to take exposure and given Ripple and XRP ecosystem room to build without constant litigation risk. Project $8 XRP in 2026 driven by ETF demand, regulatory clarity, utility in payments.'
CryptoKaleo (@CryptoKaleo): '$XRP looks ready for price discovery' [Posted with chart showing breakout above multi-year resistance]. XRP often leads altseason rotation—when it moves, others follow.
SMART MONEY CONSENSUS:
1. Bitcoin NEW ATH by end January 2026 = achievable (Tom Lee)
2. Ethereum entering SUPERCYCLE = multi-year bull run (Lee + BitMine)
3. XRP supply shock + ETF inflows = explosive setup (Standard Chartered)
4. Institutional flows returned DECISIVELY positive (BRN, Bitfinex)
5. This week's ETF data = CRITICAL for momentum continuation
IV. MAJOR INDUSTRY HEADLINES & MARKET DRIVERS
🎯 Tom Lee: Bitcoin New ATH by End January 2026 | Fundstrat co-founder doubles down on bullish outlook. 'Bitcoin has not peaked yet—can hit new all-time high this month.' Also projects S&P 7,700 by year-end. Frames H1 2026 volatility as setup for H2 'MASSIVE RALLY.'
💰 XRP ETF Record $46M Single-Day Inflows | Highest since launch. Total assets $1.65B. 43 consecutive positive inflow days, ZERO outflows. Exchange balances 8-year lows. Supply shock mechanics playing out exactly as Bitcoin 2024 ETF playbook.
⚡ Ethereum 'SUPERCYCLE' Call from Tom Lee | 'ETH dramatically undervalued—entering supercycle similar to Bitcoin 2017-2021.' BitMine holds 4.14M ETH backing thesis. ETH fund inflows $12.7B 2025 (+138% YoY) vs BTC down 35% = institutional rotation confirmed.
🚀 $121M Short Liquidations Accelerate Rally | Past 4 hours: $121M shorts liquidated vs <$9M longs. Classic squeeze mechanics creating reflexive buying. Bears positioned for pullback getting CRUSHED as momentum builds.
📈 Institutional ETF Flows Resume - First Time in Weeks | BRN: 'Spot ETF inflows returned across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP helping stabilize prices.' Fresh new-year allocations + safe-haven bids driving rally. Bitfinex: 'Upcoming flow prints CRITICAL for momentum continuation.'
🌍 Venezuela Headlines Provide Safe-Haven Bid | U.S. action in Venezuela contributing to hard asset flows. Speculation Venezuela oil supply may increase under U.S. guidance = disinflationary impulse = allows rate cuts = bullish for risk assets including crypto.
🎢 Crypto Outperforming All Asset Classes Week-to-Date | Total market cap above $3.2T. Gold $4,400+, silver surging, Asian equities at records. Risk-ON environment confirmed. Crypto leading charge with BTC +7%, ETH +9%, XRP +29%.
📊 Standard Chartered Maintains $8 XRP Target | Bank projects XRP could hit $8 in 2026 driven by ETF demand, regulatory clarity, payment utility. Requires $18.6B capital inflows. If ETF flows sustain $500M/month, $4-$5 achievable.
🐕 DOGE Leading Meme Rally +17% Week | Dogecoin gained most among major tokens. Golden cross confirmed. PEPE, PENGU also surging. Meme season confirmed—historically leads final altseason phase. Retail FOMO returning.
⚙️ Solana Technical Upgrades Accelerating | Firedancer deployed (throughput revolution), Alpenglow protocol coming (100-150ms finality). U.S. spot SOL ETFs attracting steady inflows. $3.6B 2025 fund inflows (+1,000% YoY).
V. THIS WEEK'S TRADING PLAYBOOK
THE SETUP IS PERFECT:
Tuesday January 6th, 2026. Tom Lee calls for Bitcoin NEW ATH by end January. XRP ETF inflows hit RECORD $46M single day. Ethereum 'SUPERCYCLE' backed by 4.14M ETH position. Institutional flows resumed decisively positive. $121M shorts liquidated. Every indicator ALIGNED bullish.
THIS WEEK'S PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION:
CORE POSITIONS (70%):
• BTC: 35% | Entry $92.5K-$94K, stop $90K, targets $100K/$105K/$110K | R/R: 5-15:1
• ETH: 35% | Entry $3,180-$3,240, stop $3,050, targets $3,450/$3,800/$4,200 | R/R: 4-12:1
ALTCOIN SWINGS (30%):
• XRP: 15% | Entry $2.30-$2.45, stop $2.05, targets $2.85/$3.40/$4.00 | R/R: 5-10:1 | THE TRADE
• SOL: 8% | Entry $135-$140, stop $130, targets $150/$160/$200 | R/R: 4:1
• ADA: 5% | Entry $0.40-$0.43, stop $0.37, targets $0.50/$0.60 | R/R: 3:1
• DOGE: 2% | Entry $0.145-$0.15, stop $0.135, targets $0.18/$0.21 | SPECULATION
KEY CATALYSTS THIS WEEK:
• Tuesday/Wednesday: XRP ETF flow data (after record $46M day)
• Thursday: Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF weekly flows
• Friday: Jobs Report (macro driver for Fed expectations)
• All Week: Tom Lee's January ATH timeline = creates FOMO
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter provides market analysis and trading intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, understand the risks, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. The Rekt Reports and its authors are not registered financial advisors. Trade responsibly.
