Rangebound or Breakout Time?

January 7, 2026

Bitcoin trading $92,000 (pulled back from $94,645 Monday high, down 2.5% but HOLDING KEY SUPPORT). Ethereum at $3,213 (consolidating gains, +9% since Jan 1). XRP at $2.25 after CNBC crowned it "HOTTEST CRYPTO TRADE OF 2026" on national TV yesterday.

THE REALITY CHECK: After 6 consecutive green days and sharp rallies (BTC $88K → $94.6K, ETH $3K → $3.3K, XRP $1.85 → $2.40), profit-taking kicked in. $460M leveraged positions liquidated in hours. Bitcoin rejected at $94,645—critical resistance. BUT this is HEALTHY. Consolidation above $90K support = bullish structure INTACT. Tom Lee's January ATH call still in play (24 days left).

CNBC XRP BOMBSHELL: "The hottest crypto trade of the year is not Bitcoin, it is not Ether, it is XRP" - Brian Sullivan. Analyst projects 4.8B XRP absorbed by ETFs in 2026 at current pace. This is institutional VALIDATION.

REGULATORY BOMB: TD Cowen warns CLARITY Act crypto legislation may be DELAYED until 2027, with full implementation pushed to 2029. Political dispute over conflict-of-interest provisions (Democrats want to bar Trump family crypto involvement). Short-term uncertainty but long-term bullish—delay means current regulatory environment continues favoring innovation.

THE ALTCOIN ROTATION: Bitcoin dominance falling below 59% = altseason priming. SUI +31% week, XRP +24%, SOL +12%, ADA showing strength. Market cap added $250B first week 2026. Capital rotating from BTC → high-quality altcoins. Selective altseason, not broad pump.

I. BREAKING HEADLINES & 24-HOUR CATALYSTS

• CNBC CROWNS XRP "HOTTEST CRYPTO TRADE OF 2026" ON NATIONAL TV

The Declaration: Yesterday (January 6th) on CNBC Power Lunch, host Brian Sullivan: "The hottest crypto trade of the year is not Bitcoin, it is not Ether, it is XRP." Mackenzie Sigalos called it the "new cryptocurrency darling" and "breakout investment of 2026." This is MAJOR mainstream financial media validation.

The Performance: XRP +24% YTD (Jan 1-7) vs BTC +5.5%, ETH +9.7%. Only DOGE (+28.6%) outperformed among top-20. XRP overtook BNB to become 4th largest crypto by market cap. Currently trading $2.25 after healthy profit-taking from $2.40 Monday high.

Why XRP Won According to CNBC: 

(1) Regulatory Clarity: Ripple SEC fight concluded August 2025—legal overhang GONE

(2) Less Crowded Trade: Bitcoin/Ethereum heavily owned. XRP offers cleaner upside profile for percentage gains

(3) Contrarian Positioning: ETF flows held STRONG through Q4 2025 market weakness. Investors accumulated when others were selling

ETF Dominance Data: 

• Cumulative inflows: $1.25 BILLION (fastest to $1B after Bitcoin)

• ZERO outflows since launch (43 consecutive positive inflow days)

• January 6th single day: $19.12 million

• Analyst Chad Steingraber projection: 20M XRP/day purchase = 4.8B XRP absorbed by year-end (7.3% circulating supply)

The Contrarian Debate: Some traders note "CNBC calling something hot = top signal" (2018 XRP peaked at $3.40 after hype, crashed 90%). BUT key difference: THIS time institutional flows LEADING price action, not retail FOMO following. Sustained ETF demand + exchange balance declines = structural support, not speculation.

Trading Intelligence: Current $2.25 = healthy consolidation after 5-day +35% rally. Support $2.10 (must hold) / $1.96 (critical). Resistance $2.50 (breakout) / $2.68 (analyst target). Break above $2.50 → targets $2.85 / $3.40. CNBC coverage brings NEW retail wave = potential fuel for next leg up.

• BITCOIN REJECTED AT $94,645

The Rejection: Monday January 6th, Bitcoin briefly touched $94,645 before sharp rejection back to $92,000 (down 2.5%). This was the 7th consecutive attempt to break $95K resistance that failed. Bulls running into wall. Bears smell blood.

Liquidation Cascade: $460M leveraged positions wiped out in hours as BTC dropped 3% from local top $94.4K → $91.7K. Mostly LONG liquidations—over-leveraged traders who bought the breakout got squeezed. BUT CoinGlass data shows open interest INCREASED 1.02% to $141B during decline = position reshuffling, NOT panic exits.

Technical Structure Currently: 

• Price: $92,000 (down from $94,645 high)

• Key Support: $90,000 (MUST hold for bullish case)

• Resistance: $94,645 (Monday rejection), $95,000 (major wall)

• RSI: 55 (neutral momentum)

• Fear & Greed: 42 ("fear" zone, down from 44)

• 100-day EMA: Price rejected here, bearish short-term

• Supertrend: Bearish (price below indicator)

Why This Pullback Is HEALTHY (Not Bearish): 

1. After 7-8% rally from $88K in 6 days, consolidation NORMAL

2. Short-term traders taking profits after strong run

3. Long-term holders ACCUMULATING dip (stablecoin inflows strong)

4. Spot ETFs added $700M+ assets YTD (institutional buying)

5. Bitcoin dominance falling (<59%) = altseason beginning

6. Volume during decline = healthy, not panicked

Bull vs Bear Case: 

BULL CASE (60% probability): Consolidation $90K-$93K for 2-3 days, then next attempt at $95K. If breaks with volume → $98K-$100K by end January (Tom Lee's target). Sidelined capital (stablecoins) steps in. ETF flows resume. Rally continues.

BEAR CASE (40% probability): Daily close below $90K triggers deeper correction. Targets $88K (support) → $85K (major support) → $80.6K (analyst target per AMBCrypto). Liquidation cluster below $84K gets triggered. Would need to consolidate lower before next attempt at highs.

Analyst Views: 

• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): Maintains "Bitcoin hits new ATH by end January" despite pullback

• AMBCrypto: "Retracement toward $80.6K likely" if liquidations trigger

• CryptoQuant: Stablecoin/BTC ratio "highly constructive"—sidelined liquidity ready

• Daily Forex: "Breakout could target $100K, weakness risks $88K"

• TD COWEN BOMBSHELL: CLARITY ACT DELAYED UNTIL 2027-2029

The Report: TD Cowen Washington Research Group dropped bombshell analysis: comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure legislation (CLARITY Act / Responsible Financial Innovation Act) unlikely to pass in 2026. Expect passage around 2027 with full regulatory implementation delayed until 2029. This is 3-5 YEAR delay from industry expectations.

The Political Roadblock: Democrats demanding strict conflict-of-interest provisions barring senior government officials (including Trump and family) from owning/running crypto businesses. Republicans oppose unless enforcement delayed 3 years. POLITICAL STALEMATE over Trump family crypto involvement.

Market Reaction - Surprisingly BULLISH: Delay means current favorable regulatory environment CONTINUES. No new restrictions for 3-5 years. Crypto-friendly SEC under Trump administration continues approving ETFs. DeFi development unrestricted. Innovation proceeds unchecked. Short-term regulatory uncertainty but long-term operational clarity.

Trading Intelligence: Status quo maintained = GOOD for markets short-term. ETF approvals proceeding (Morgan Stanley just filed BTC/SOL ETFs). No threat of restrictive legislation. Current momentum continues. Institutions can build with confidence.

• MORGAN STANLEY FILES BITCOIN & SOLANA ETFs - WALL STREET EXPANSION

The Filing: Morgan Stanley filed S-1 forms to launch spot Bitcoin AND Solana ETFs. First major bank to file for SOL ETF after being first to let advisors recommend spot BTC ETFs. Expanding product lineup as demand grows.

Significance: Wall Street institutional players expanding crypto offerings = validation of long-term viability. Morgan Stanley advisors can now offer clients diversified crypto exposure beyond just Bitcoin. SOL gaining institutional legitimacy.

• MSCI KEEPS CRYPTO TREASURY COMPANIES IN MAJOR INDEXES

The Decision: MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) announced it will maintain digital asset treasury companies (like Strategy/MicroStrategy) in its major stock indexes for 2026. Strategy stock jumped +5% after-hours on news.

Why This Matters: Major index provider validates Bitcoin treasury strategy. Pension funds, ETFs that track MSCI indexes MUST hold these stocks. Forced institutional buying. Legitimizes corporate Bitcoin adoption.

• ALTCOIN SEASON PRIMING - BITCOIN DOMINANCE <59%

The Data: Bitcoin dominance fell below 59% as capital rotates into altcoins. Market cap added $250B first week 2026. Top performers: SUI +31%, XRP +24% YTD, DOGE +28.6%, SOL +12%. Selective rotation into quality alts.

What This Signals: Classic altseason setup: BTC consolidates while alts pump. Not broad market pump like 2021—SELECTIVE. Money flowing to liquid, high-utility tokens with institutional backing (ETFs). Trash coins still bleeding.

II. ACTIONABLE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PROFIT MAXIMIZATION

BITCOIN (BTC) - Current: $92,000

Price Action: Pulled back from $94,645 Monday high | Down 2.5% to $92K | Consolidating above critical $90K support

CRITICAL SETUP - Consolidation or Reversal:

• The Rejection: Bitcoin failed 7th attempt to break $95K resistance. This is significant—sellers defending this level aggressively. Bulls need VOLUME breakout or risk deeper correction.

• The Support Test: $90,000 is THE level. Hold here = bullish structure intact, rally resumes. Break below = bearish, targets $88K → $85K. Currently consolidating $90K-$93K range.

• Tom Lee's ATH Call: Still maintains "new ATH by end January" (24 days left). From current $92K → $126K ATH = 37% move. Aggressive but achievable IF $95K breaks.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: 55 (neutral—neither overbought nor oversold)

• MACD: Weakening but still positive

• Moving Averages: Below 100-day EMA (bearish), above 50-day (supportive)

• Volume: Moderate during pullback (not panicked)

• Fear & Greed: 42 (neutral "fear" zone)

Support & Resistance:

• Support: S1 $90,000 (CRITICAL) | S2 $88,500 | S3 $85,000

• Resistance: R1 $94,645 (Monday rejection) | R2 $95,000 (major wall) | R3 $98K-$100K

THIS WEEK'S BTC PLAYBOOK:

PRIMARY SETUP (55% probability): Consolidation Then Breakout

• Entry Zone: $90K-$92.5K (current range = opportunity)

• Add on Strength: If breaks $95K with volume, add 20% more

• Stop Loss: $89,500 (below key support, invalidates bull case)

• Target 1: $98,000 (take 30% profit)

• Target 2: $100,000 (take 40% profit)

• Target 3: $105,000-$110,000 (let 30% run toward ATH)

• R/R Ratio: 4:1 to T1, 8:1 to T2, 12:1 to T3

• Position Size: 80% (reduced from 110% due to rejection)

• Timeline: If $95K breaks this week, $100K possible by Jan 20th

BEAR SCENARIO (45% probability): Break Below $90K

• Trigger: Daily close below $90,000

• Action: EXIT all long positions immediately

• Wait for: $88K-$90K consolidation to re-enter

• Alternative: Short from $89.5K, target $85K, stop $91.5K (advanced traders only)

CRITICAL EXECUTION NOTES:

• Watch $95K like a HAWK—4-hour close above = BUY signal

• If consolidates $90K-$93K for 3+ days = bullish (base building)

• If makes lower high below $94K = bearish (distribution)

• Friday Jobs Report could be catalyst for breakout or breakdown

• Tom Lee's timeline creates urgency—traders will push for $95K break

ETHEREUM (ETH) - Current: $3,213

Price Action: +9% since Jan 1 | Consolidating below $3,300 | Tom Lee "Supercycle" thesis intact

Tom Lee Backing With 4.14M ETH:BitMine holds $13.3B ETH position. This is SKIN IN THE GAME. Lee believes ETH entering "supercycle similar to Bitcoin 2017-2021" (69x potential). Current $3.2K → supercycle implies $20K-$30K+ multi-year.

Technical Structure:

• Consolidating in rising channel $3,150-$3,250

• Testing 20/50 EMAs, below 200 EMA $3,350-$3,400

• RSI: 60 (healthy momentum)

• MACD: Bullish crossover maintained

• Volume: $36B (institutional participation)

Key Levels:

• Support: S1 $3,150 | S2 $3,000 (psychological) | S3 $2,960

• Resistance: R1 $3,300 (test incoming) | R2 $3,400 (200 EMA) | R3 $3,450 (Dec high) | R4 $3,800

THIS WEEK'S ETH PLAYBOOK

• Entry: $3,150-$3,220 (current range)

• Stop: $3,050 (below support)

• Target 1: $3,450 (25% profit at Dec high)

• Target 2: $3,800 (40% profit, Elliott Wave target)

• Target 3: $4,200-$4,500 (35% profit, supercycle beginning)

• R/R: 4:1 to T1, 9:1 to T3

• Size: 90% (Tom Lee backing justifies overweight)

XRP - THE CNBC-CROWNED "HOTTEST 2026 TRADE"

Current: $2.25 | +24% YTD | CNBC: "Not Bitcoin, not Ether—it's XRP"

Why THIS Is THE Moment:

• ETF inflows: $1.25B cumulative, ZERO outflows, fastest to $1B after BTC

• Supply shock: 4.8B XRP projected absorbed by ETFs in 2026

• Outperforming everything: +24% YTD vs BTC +5.5%

• Less crowded than BTC/ETH = higher percentage gains possible

Technical Setup:

• Healthy consolidation $2.20-$2.30 after rally to $2.40

• Support: $2.10 (must hold) / $1.96 (critical)

• Resistance: $2.50 (breakout) / $2.68 (analyst target) / $3.40

• RSI: 62 (strong but not extended)

STRATEGY - CNBC MOMENTUM PLAY:

• Entry: $2.20-$2.30 (current consolidation = gift)

• Add on Breakout: $2.50 confirms next leg

• Stop: $2.05 (below support, invalidates)

• Target 1: $2.85 (20% profit, psychological resistance)

• Target 2: $3.40 (40% profit, analyst target)

• Target 3: $4.00-$4.50 (40% profit, Standard Chartered path to $8)

• Size: 70% (CNBC coverage = new retail wave incoming)

• R/R: 6:1 to T1, 12:1 to T3

• Note: HIGHEST CONVICTION ALTCOIN due to institutional backing + mainstream validation

ALTCOIN ROTATION PLAYS - SELECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES

SOLANA (SOL) - Current: $137-$138

Setup: +12% rally, Morgan Stanley SOL ETF filed, Firedancer deployed

Strategy: Long $135-$140, stop $130, target $150/$160. Size: 40%. R/R: 3:1

CARDANO (ADA) - Current: $0.41

Setup: Midnight mainnet Q1, steady gains

Strategy: Long $0.39-$0.42, stop $0.37, target $0.50/$0.60. Size: 30%

SUI - Current: $1.90 (+31% week, but -64% from $5.35 ATH)

Performance: +31% week (STRONG) | $1.90 current, rallied from $1.44 lows | Down -64% from $5.35 ATH (January 2025)

Setup: Explosive 31% weekly rally but RSI 71.91 (OVERBOUGHT). Testing resistance $1.95-$2.00. Bitwise filed spot SUI ETF (institutional validation). TVL >$1B. BlackRock quietly accumulating per reports.

STRATEGY: WAIT for consolidation $1.75-$1.85 (healthy pullback) OR confirmed break above $2.00. Target $2.30/$2.50 (next resistance). Stop $1.65. Size: 15%. HIGH RISK - recently overbought after big move.

Setup: Midnight mainnet Q1, steady gains

Strategy: Long $0.39-$0.42, stop $0.37, target $0.50/$0.60. Size: 30%

DOGECOIN (DOGE) - Current: $0.15

Performance: +28.6% YTD (leading top-20)

Strategy: Speculation only. Long $0.145-$0.15, stop $0.135, target $0.18. Size: 15%

III. SMART MONEY SENTIMENT & INSTITUTIONAL SIGNALS

TD Cowen (Jaret Seiberg): "CLARITY Act crypto legislation likely delayed to 2027 passage, 2029 implementation. Political calculations around midterms and Trump conflict-of-interest disputes. Time favors enactment as problems disappear if bill passes in 2027 and takes effect in 2029."

CryptoQuant: "Bitcoin/stablecoin ratio remains highly constructive. Fresh stablecoin inflows to exchanges combined with falling BTC price = sidelined liquidity ready to step in. Strong ETF inflows support idea Bitcoin could make further gains in coming weeks."

AMBCrypto Analyst: "Retracement toward $80.6K likely if liquidation cluster below $84K gets triggered. However, despite short-term risk, sidelined liquidity could help BTC's recovery. Current Bitcoin/stablecoin data remains highly constructive."

IV. MAJOR INDUSTRY HEADLINES & MARKET DRIVERS

🎯 CNBC Crowns XRP "Hottest Crypto Trade of 2026" | National TV validation on Power Lunch. "Not Bitcoin, not Ether—it's XRP." +24% YTD vs BTC +5.5%. ETF inflows $1.25B with ZERO outflows. Mainstream recognition bringing new retail wave.

📉 Bitcoin Rejected at $94,645 - Consolidation Active | 7th attempt to break $95K failed. Pulled back to $92K. $460M liquidations. BUT holding $90K support = bullish structure intact. Healthy profit-taking after 6 green days.

⚖️ TD Cowen: CLARITY Act Delayed to 2027-2029 | Comprehensive crypto legislation pushed 3-5 years due to political disputes. Democrats want Trump family conflict-of-interest rules. Market reaction: BULLISH—current favorable environment continues.

🏦 Morgan Stanley Files Bitcoin & Solana ETFs | First major bank to file for SOL ETF. Expanding crypto product lineup. Wall Street institutional players validating long-term viability of digital assets.

📊 MSCI Keeps Crypto Treasury Companies in Indexes | Strategy (MSTR) jumped +5% after-hours. Index provider validates Bitcoin treasury strategy. Pension funds must hold these stocks. Forced institutional buying.

🔄 Altcoin Season Priming - Bitcoin Dominance <59% | Capital rotating to quality alts. SUI +31%, XRP +24%, DOGE +28.6%, SOL +12%. Market cap added $250B first week 2026. SELECTIVE rotation, not broad pump.

💰 Spot Bitcoin ETFs Added $700M+ Assets YTD | Institutional buying continues despite pullback. ETF flows positive. Long-term holders accumulating. Short-term traders taking profits.

📈 Stablecoin Inflows Remain Strong | CryptoQuant: Bitcoin/stablecoin ratio "highly constructive." Sidelined liquidity ready to step in. Fresh capital on sidelines waiting for entry.

🎪 Goldman Sachs Upgrades Coinbase to "Buy" | COIN stock jumped +8% Monday. 12-month target raised $294 → $303. After -50% H2 2025, showing strength.

📉 Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 42 (Neutral Fear) | Down from 44 earlier week. Still in "fear" zone = contrarian buy signal historically. Not panic, just caution.

V. THIS WEEK'S TRADING PLAYBOOK

THE SETUP IS CONSOLIDATION, NOT CAPITULATION:

Wednesday January 7th, 2026. After 6 consecutive green days and sharp rallies, market taking HEALTHY BREATHER. Bitcoin rejected at $94,645 but HOLDING $90K support. CNBC crowned XRP hottest 2026 trade = mainstream validation. TD Cowen regulatory delay = favorable environment continues. This pullback = opportunity.

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION FOR MAXIMUM PROFIT:

CORE POSITIONS (70%):

• BTC: 35% | Entry $90K-$92.5K, stop $89.5K, targets $98K/$100K/$110K | R/R: 4-12:1

  [Reduced from 40% due to rejection, but still bullish above $90K]

• ETH: 35% | Entry $3,150-$3,220, stop $3,050, targets $3,450/$3,800/$4,500 | R/R: 4-9:1

  [Tom Lee supercycle + 4.14M ETH position = conviction]

ALTCOIN SWING TRADES (30%):

• XRP: 18% | Entry $2.20-$2.30, stop $2.05, targets $2.85/$3.40/$4.00 | R/R: 6-12:1

  [HIGHEST CONVICTION - CNBC validation + ETF flows = THE TRADE]

• SOL: 6% | Entry $135-$140, stop $130, targets $150/$160 | R/R: 3:1

• ADA: 3% | Entry $0.39-$0.42, stop $0.37, targets $0.50/$0.60

• DOGE: 2% | Entry $0.145-$0.15, stop $0.135, target $0.18 | SPECULATION

• SUI: 1% | Current $1.90 (overbought +31% week). Wait for $1.75-$1.85 pullback or $2.00 break | HIGH RISK

KEY CATALYSTS THIS WEEK:

• Wednesday: ETF flow data (critical after pullback)

• Thursday: More ETF data, any Fed speakers

• Friday: JOBS REPORT (major macro event)

• All Week: Tom Lee January ATH timeline creates urgency

• Ongoing: CNBC XRP coverage brings retail FOMO

🚀 BONUS: CES 2026 - NVIDIA'S VERA RUBIN AI CHIP REVOLUTION

While crypto consolidates, CES 2026 in Las Vegas is EXPLODING with AI announcements that will power the next decade of innovation—and crypto AI convergence.

NVIDIA'S VERA RUBIN SUPERCHIP - THE GAME-CHANGER:

• Jensen Huang unveiled Rubin platform at CES Monday—combines Vera CPU + 2x Rubin GPUs in single processor

• 4x REDUCTION in GPUs needed vs Blackwell for same AI training

• 10x REDUCTION in inference token costs (processing AI responses)

• Designed for agentic AI, advanced reasoning models, mixture-of-experts (MoE)

• Full production STARTED—OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, xAI, AWS, Microsoft, Google deploying

Why This Matters for Crypto:

• AI × Crypto convergence accelerating: AI agents need decentralized infrastructure

• Lower inference costs = more affordable on-chain AI applications

• Projects like Bittensor, Render, Akash Network = infrastructure plays

• DePIN sector +0.04%, AI sector +1.06% (outperforming broader market)

• SoSoValue data: AI tokens leading during consolidation

Other Wild CES 2026 Announcements:

• Lenovo's "Qira" Super AI: One AI to rule them all—connects Apple, Google, Windows AIs together

• Razer Project Motoko: Smart glasses without the glasses (holographic AI assistant)

• Boston Dynamics Atlas Humanoid: Heading to factories in 2028

• Lego Smart Brick: Physical play meets digital AI (Star Wars sets first)

• AMD Ryzen 7 9850X3D: Intel sweating with new performance benchmarks

The Big Picture: AI compute demand "going through the roof" (Jensen Huang). As AI scales, need for decentralized compute, storage, data grows. This is WHERE crypto infrastructure projects win. Watch AI × Crypto narrative heat up 2026.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter provides market analysis and trading intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, understand the risks, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. The Rekt Reports and its authors are not registered financial advisors. Trade responsibly.