Clarity Act, CPI, Trump-Powell Conflict

January 12, 2026

Markets enter "reset mode" as Bitcoin holds $91,700 (+1.06% 24h), Ethereum $3,150 (+2.1% 24h). CRITICAL WEEK: CPI data Tuesday (Est: 2.7% YoY), CLARITY Act markup vote Wednesday Jan 15th = MAJOR catalyst. Whale accumulation SURGING—54,000 BTC ($4.9B) added last week = FASTEST pace since 2012. BUT ETF outflows total $1.13B over 3 days signals institutional profit-taking. Trump-Powell conflict escalating = Dollar weakness + Bitcoin safe haven narrative. Strategy bought 13,627 BTC ($1.25B) = largest purchase since July. THESIS: Boring sideways action ending. Breakout imminent pending CLARITY Act passage. Bollinger Bands squeeze signals 10%+ move coming. Base case: Consolidation→Legislation→Q1 explosion.

SECTION I: LIVE MARKET DATA & CRITICAL LEVELS

CURRENT PRICES (Monday, January 12, 2026):

• Bitcoin (BTC): $91,704-$91,918 (+1.06% 24h, +1.6% from $90K)

• Ethereum (ETH): $3,150 (+2.1% 24h) | Holding above psychological $3K

• Solana (SOL): $138 (+2.25% 24h)

• XRP: $2.12 (Slight decline)

• BNB: $890 (+0.7% 24h)

• Total Market Cap: $3.09T (stable)

• Fear & Greed Index: 41/100 (NEUTRAL → FEAR border)

MARKET SENTIMENT - "BORING SIDEWAYS" BUT ACCUMULATION PHASE:

"Bitcoin enters second full week of 2026 in reset mode, hovering $91K as macro crosscurrents, ETF outflows, and derivatives flush shift market from late-2025 excess toward quieter structural rebuild" - BRN analysts. Translation: Consolidation = preparation for next leg. NOT bearish, just hesitant.

SECTION II: WHALE ACCUMULATION & ETF FLOWS (CRITICAL DATA)

🐋 WHALE ACCUMULATION EXPLOSION:

• 54,000 BTC ($4.9B) accumulated week ending Jan 12

• FASTEST accumulation rate since 2012 (on-chain data)

• Aggressive buying near $86K-$90K = Conviction in long-term value

• Whale address count dropped sharply to lowest since Jan 2024 = CONSOLIDATION (fewer addresses holding MORE coins)

✅ KEY INSIGHT: Historically, whale accumulation at this pace preceded major recoveries (Q1 2023 rally example). Supply squeeze building.

📊 ETF FLOWS - MIXED SIGNALS:

OUTFLOWS (Jan 6-9): 

• Jan 6: -$243M (BlackRock +$228M offset by Fidelity -$312M, Grayscale -$83M)

• Jan 7: -$486M (biggest outflow since late Nov 2025)

• Jan 8: -$399M

• Total 3-day bleed: -$1.13B

BUT CONTEXT: 

• Jan 2-5 saw $1.2B INFLOWS (BlackRock IBIT led with $287M single day)

• Net result: Minimal overall change = Profit-taking at $94K, NOT capitulation

• Cumulative holdings: BlackRock IBIT $115B+, Ether ETFs $20B+

🔥 STRATEGY (MSTR) LARGEST BUY SINCE JULY:

• Purchased 13,627 BTC for $1.25B (largest single buy in 6 months)

• Total holdings: 673,000 BTC (>3% of 21M supply)

• Michael Saylor thesis: "Infinite time horizon" holder = Price floor

📈 ON-CHAIN METRICS:

✅ Exchange reserves: Multi-year LOWS (13.7% of supply)

✅ 1,100+ BTC moved TO exchanges last 24h = Short-term selling pressure, BUT...

✅ Net outflows declining = Long-term holders accumulating OFF exchanges

⚠️ "Apparent Demand" 30-day: Negative territory = New capital absorption weak

⚠️ MVRV ratio declining = Unrealized profits no longer expanding

SECTION III: TRUMP-POWELL CONFLICT = MACRO CATALYST

⚡ BREAKING: FED INDEPENDENCE UNDER ATTACK

Sunday Bombshell: Fed Chair Jerome Powell released rare televised statement accusing Trump administration of weaponizing DOJ criminal investigation to pressure rate cuts.

• DOJ issued grand jury subpoenas over Fed headquarters renovation testimony

• Powell: "Justice Department threatened criminal charges" = Constitutional crisis brewing

• Treasury Secretary Bessent urging Fed to "accelerate rate cuts"

• Powell's term ends MAY 2026 = Trump expected to appoint rate cut-friendly successor

MARKET REACTION:

• Bitcoin spiked to $92,400 Sunday on news, then settled $91K

• Privacy coins SURGED (Monero XMR rallying = Surveillance fears)

• Dollar weakening = Safe haven narrative for BTC/Gold strengthening

THESIS: Fed independence erosion = Accelerated rate cuts likely = Liquidity flood = BULLISH for Bitcoin. Short-term volatility spike possible, but medium-term tailwind massive.

SECTION IV: CRITICAL CATALYSTS THIS WEEK

📅 TUESDAY, JANUARY 13 - CPI INFLATION DATA (1:30 PM ET):

Estimates: MoM +0.3% (Core +0.3%) | YoY 2.7% (Core 2.7%)

Bullish Scenario: CPI comes in BELOW 2.7% → Rate cut hopes accelerate → Bitcoin pumps

Bearish Scenario: CPI above 2.8% → Sticky inflation → Rate cuts delayed → Short-term BTC pressure

Impact: HIGH. Crypto hypersensitive to macro given current positioning.

📅 WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 15 - CLARITY ACT MARKUP VOTE:

THE BIG ONE: Senate Banking Committee votes on Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

What It Does: 

   • Ends SEC/CFTC turf war (CFTC gets BTC/ETH as commodities, SEC keeps securities)

   • Registration requirements for exchanges, brokers, dealers

   • DeFi pathways + tokenization clarity

Why It Matters: 

   • Goldman Sachs: "35% of institutions cite regulatory uncertainty as biggest hurdle"

   • Passage = UNLOCKS institutional capital

   • "We are closer than ever" - Blockchain Association CEO

🚀 BULLISH IF PASSES: Expect 5-10% pump. Bitcoin target $95K-$100K within days. ETH follows to $3,500+.

📅 THURSDAY, JANUARY 14 - SUPREME COURT TARIFF RULING:

Trade policy decision could impact global risk sentiment = Indirect crypto effect

🗓️ OTHER KEY EVENTS:

• Bank of England Governor Bailey speech (Tuesday 9 AM)

• FOMC member Thomas Barkin speech (Tuesday 9 PM)

• SEC "Innovation Exemption" expected announcement (timing TBD)

SECTION V: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TRADING LEVELS

BITCOIN (BTC) - $91,700 | BOLLINGER BANDS SQUEEZE = EXPLOSION IMMINENT

Chart Pattern: BOLLINGER BANDS SQUEEZE. Gap between bands <$3,500 = LOWEST since July 2025. Historical pattern: These squeezes precede MAJOR price swings (10-20%).

Current Range: $85K-$92K for 2+ weeks. "Boring sideways" ending.

Support Levels: $90K (psychological), $88.3K (50-day MA), $84.43K (CRITICAL)

Resistance: $92K-$94K (recent highs), $95K (200-day MA + major), $100K (psychological)

RSI: 52 (neutral) - Room to run either direction

Volume: $13.33B (24h) = DECLINING. Coiling for explosive move.

📊 TRADE: Entry: $90K-$92K (current). Stop: $87.5K. Bullish targets: $95K/$100K/$110K. Bearish targets if breaks down: $84K/$82K. R/R 4:1 upside. Size: 40%. CLARITY Act passage = catalyst for breakout.

ETHEREUM (ETH) - $3,150 | STANDARD CHARTERED: "2026 YEAR OF ETHEREUM"

Performance: +2.1% (24h) OUTPERFORMING Bitcoin = Relative strength returning

Standard Chartered Thesis: ETH to outperform BTC in 2026. Cut target to $7,500 (2026) from $12K, but still massive upside from $3,150. Rationale: Stablecoin dominance, RWA tokenization, DeFi leadership, rising throughput.

Technical: Holding $3K psychological support. Next resistance $3,200, then $3,400. ETH/BTC ratio at 0.034, target 0.08 (2021 highs) = 2.35x from here.

📊 TRADE: Entry: $3,100-$3,200. Stop: $2,950. Targets: $3,400/$3,800/$4,500 (mid-term), $7,500 (year-end per Standard Chartered). R/R 6:1. Size: 35%.

SECTION VI: ALTCOIN OPPORTUNITIES & SECTOR ROTATION

🔥 SECTOR ROTATION THEMES THIS WEEK:

1. AI + DEPIN SECTORS EXTENDING RALLY:

• Coinbase: "AI-crypto convergence fundamental shift, not just trend"

• A16z: "AI agents will revolutionize internet payments in 2026"

2. PRIVACY COINS SURGING:

• Monero (XMR): +15.12% (24h) = Biggest mover in top 20

• Zcash (ZEC): +11.2% (top 100)

• Catalyst: Trump-Powell surveillance fears + Grayscale highlighting privacy infrastructure need

Trade: XMR $530, ZEC $430 both extended. Wait for -20% pullback before entry. Size: 1-2% lottery tickets.

3. STABLECOINS & TOKENIZATION:

• GENIUS Act implementation July 2026 = Banks launching stablecoins

• BlackRock: "Stablecoins will challenge government currency control"

• Play: SOL (stablecoin infrastructure), TRX (Tether freeze $182M = platform activity)

💎 TOP ALTCOIN TRADES THIS WEEK:

SOLANA (SOL) - $138 | JPMorgan + Visa Adoption

• Performance: +2.25% (24h), +8.44% (7d)

• Catalyst: JPMorgan using SOL for settlements, Visa USDC program $3.5B volume

• Morgan Stanley SOL ETF filed = Institutional validation

Trade: Entry $135-$140. Target $155/$175. Stop $130. Size: 15%.

XRP - $2.12 | CLARITY Act Direct Beneficiary

• Will likely be classified as commodity (CFTC) = Regulatory clarity = Bullish

• ETF inflows: $1.37B cumulative

Trade: Entry $2.05-$2.15. Target $2.50/$2.80 (CLARITY Act pass). Stop $1.95. Size: 10%.

POL (Polygon) - $0.1462 | Surprise Performer

• +12.5% (24h) = Top 100 leader

Trade: Momentum play. Entry $0.14-$0.15. Target $0.18. Stop $0.13. Size: 2%.

SECTION VII: CRYPTO TWITTER SENTIMENT & ANALYST VIEWS

🐦 SAMER HASN (XS.com Senior Analyst):

"Bitcoin barely holding above $90K. Pullback came amid steady drain of liquidity across market. The decline is NOT driven by panic selling, but by hesitation. Buyers reluctant to push higher, sensing sentiment lacks depth for sustained rally. With macro mixed and liquidity retreating, restoring bullish conviction difficult near-term."

🐦 STANDARD CHARTERED (Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head Digital Assets):

"2026 will be the year of Ethereum. ETH to outperform BTC. Dominance in stablecoins, tokenized RWAs, and DeFi supports recovery in ETH-BTC ratio toward 0.08 (2021 highs). Year-end target $7,500."

🐦 GRAYSCALE (2026 Outlook Report):

"Expect bipartisan crypto market structure legislation to become U.S. law in 2026. This will bring deeper integration between public blockchains and traditional finance. Institutions will focus on blockchains with high/growing fee revenue: TRX, SOL, ETH, BNB."

🐦 GOLDMAN SACHS:

"Regulatory reform is THE biggest catalyst for institutional adoption. 71% of institutions plan to increase crypto exposure next 12 months. Current allocation only 7% AUM = Massive room for growth."

🐦 COINBASE (David Duong, Investment Research Head):

"AI deployment will catalyze economic boom not yet captured by statistics. AI-crypto convergence is fundamental shift toward next stage of technological progress. Privacy token demand will skyrocket as awareness of digital surveillance grows."

🐦 FIDELITY ($6T Asset Manager):

"More countries will buy Bitcoin in 2026. Bank adoption, nation state adoption is going to increase." Strategy CEO Phong Le echoes: "Bank adoption accelerating."

🐦 CONSENSUS VIEW:

Analysts agree: Short-term consolidation/hesitation, BUT medium-term bullish on regulatory clarity + institutional adoption. CLARITY Act passage = inflection point. Privacy coins + AI-crypto convergence = emerging narratives.

SECTION VIII: WEEK AHEAD OUTLOOK & TRADING THESIS

📈 BASE CASE (65% PROBABILITY): CONSOLIDATION → CLARITY → BREAKOUT

Monday-Tuesday: Choppy trading $90K-$93K range awaiting CPI

Tuesday Evening: CPI in-line (2.7%) → Neutral reaction

Wednesday: CLARITY Act passes markup → 5-8% pump begins

Thursday-Friday: Follow-through to $95K-$98K

Targets: BTC $95K-$98K (week-end), ETH $3,400-$3,500, SOL $150+, XRP $2.40+

🚀 BULL CASE (25% PROBABILITY): EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT

CPI comes in LOW (<2.5%) + CLARITY Act passes + Powell pressure = Perfect storm

Bitcoin breaks $100K psychological THIS WEEK

Targets: BTC $100K-$105K, ETH $3,800+, Altcoins explode 20-30%

🐻 BEAR CASE (10% PROBABILITY): CLARITY DELAYED + HOT CPI

CPI above 2.8% + CLARITY Act delayed = Double negative

Bitcoin tests $88K, possibly $84K support

BUT: Whale accumulation + institutional buying limits downside. Buying opportunity.

SECTION IX: BONUS - REGULATORY & AI DEVELOPMENTS

🏛️ REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS:

• All-Republican SEC "Unusual": Caroline Crenshaw (last crypto-skeptic) term ended. SEC now entirely pro-crypto Republicans under Paul Atkins. "2026 will be massive year at SEC" - expect real exemptive relief.

• California Digital Assets Law: Takes effect July 1, 2026. Crypto firms serving CA residents need licenses. Major compliance shift.

• State Bitcoin Reserves: Texas, Arizona, New Hampshire advancing plans. Arizona voter approval possible November 2026.

• Tether Action: Froze $182M USDT on Tron = Platform enforcement active.

• UK Labour Committee: Urged TOTAL BAN on crypto donations to political parties = Regulatory divergence EU/US.

🤖 AI + CRYPTO CONVERGENCE:

• NVIDIA Rubin Platform: Full production. 5x AI computing power. Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI infrastructure (reshaping data center economics).

• A16z Prediction: "AI agents will pay each other for data, GPU time, API calls instantly on-chain - no invoicing, permissionlessly."

• Grayscale: Quantum computing NOT immediate threat (overblown FUD). Focus on real catalysts: regulation.

🌍 INTERNATIONAL:

• South Korea: Ending 9-year ban on corporate crypto investment

• India: Tightening oversight with stricter identity requirements

• Iran: Revolutionary Guard moved $1B through UK crypto exchanges since 2023 (sanctions concern)

FINAL SUMMARY: THIS WEEK IS MAKE OR BREAK

Markets positioned at INFLECTION POINT. Whale accumulation at record pace ($4.9B/week) + ETF consolidation + Bollinger Bands squeeze + CLARITY Act vote Wednesday = EXPLOSIVE setup. Short-term: "Boring sideways" continues Monday-Tuesday. Wednesday Jan 15 CLARITY markup = CATALYST. If passes, expect 5-10% immediate pump, 20-30% rally into month-end. CPI Tuesday wildcard but unlikely to derail medium-term thesis. Trump-Powell conflict = Accelerated rate cuts = Liquidity tailwind. THESIS: Accumulate $90K-$92K (BTC), $3,100-$3,200 (ETH). This consolidation = preparation for Q1 moonshot. Risk/Reward heavily skewed BULLISH. Let's make profit.

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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter provides market analysis and trading intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, understand the risks, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. The Rekt Reports and its authors are not registered financial advisors. Trade responsibly.