BTC Long Weekend Setup
January 16, 2026
Here's what just happened at 8AM UTC: $2.84 BILLION worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options EVAPORATED from Deribit. Bitcoin held ABOVE the $92K "max pain" level (where most options expire worthless) trading at $95,500. Ethereum stayed balanced. But here's the CRITICAL part everyone's missing: Post-expiry is when the REAL moves happen. Right now, we're in that 24-48 hour window where market makers unwind hedges, volatility compresses, and price discovers its next direction. Translation? Monday could be VIOLENT. And the technical setup suggests ONE direction: UP. Why? Bitcoin closed the week +5.2% despite regulatory chaos. Ethereum staking hit 30% of supply ($119B locked). ETF flows stabilizing. Whale accumulation continuing. Fear & Greed recovering. The $94K-$97K consolidation zone we've been stuck in for 5 days? That's the LAUNCHPAD. When $97K breaks (and it will), there's NOTHING but air to $100K. This weekend is NOT downtime. It's positioning time. Because Monday morning when Wall Street wakes up and sees post-options clarity, the FOMO train leaves the station. And if you're not already on board? You're chasing green candles at $98K instead of accumulating at $95K. Let's break down EXACTLY what's about to happen.
💣 SECTION I: THE $3B OPTIONS EXPIRY (What It Actually Means)
THE NUMBERS:
• Total Notional Value: $2.84 BILLION
• Bitcoin: $2.4 BILLION (dominates)
• Ethereum: $437 MILLION
• Expiry Time: 8:00 AM UTC Friday (this morning)
• Bitcoin Max Pain: $92,000
• Bitcoin Current: $95,500 (ABOVE max pain ✅)
• Put/Call Ratio: 1.39 (defensive positioning)
WHAT IS MAX PAIN?
"Max pain" is the price where the MOST options expire worthless, benefiting options sellers (usually market makers). Think of it like gravity—price tends to drift toward max pain into expiry as dealers hedge their positions.
Bitcoin's max pain was $92K. We expired at $95.5K. That's BULLISH. Why? Because call buyers (bulls) WON. Enough buying pressure existed to hold price $3.5K ABOVE the level where dealers wanted it. When bulls win expiries, momentum typically CONTINUES post-expiry.
Compare this to if we expired at $91K (below max pain). That would signal bears are in control. But we didn't. We held ABOVE. That's conviction.
INSTITUTIONAL BLOCK TRADES (The Real Signal):
According to Greeks.live data from this week:
• Bitcoin block trades: $1.7 BILLION (40% of total volume)
• Ethereum block trades: $130 MILLION (20% of volume)
Institutional money is FLOODING into Bitcoin. Block trades are large, institutional-sized orders. When 40% of your volume is coming from whales, that's ACCUMULATION, not distribution. Retail doesn't move $1.7B in block trades. BlackRock does. Pension funds do. Sovereign wealth funds do.
Ethereum? More balanced. Less institutional conviction SHORT-TERM. But don't sleep on ETH—we'll get to why it's the sleeper play for next week.
SECTION II: POST-EXPIRY PLAYBOOK (What Happens Next 48-72 Hours)
CRITICAL INSIGHT: The expiry itself is NOT the event. The 48-72 hours AFTER expiry is where the magic happens.
Here's what's happening RIGHT NOW behind the scenes:
MARKET MAKER UNWINDING:
Options market makers hedge their exposure by buying/selling the underlying asset. As options expire, they UNWIND those hedges. This can cause:
• Sudden volatility spikes (if unwinding is large)
• Or volatility COMPRESSION (if unwinding is orderly)
Right now, we're seeing the latter. Volume declining. Volatility compressing. Price consolidating $94.5K-$96K. This is the CALM before the storm.
WEEKEND POSITIONING:
Historically, Bitcoin weekend trading is THIN. Lower volume. Lower liquidity. But post-options weekends are DIFFERENT. Smart money uses the 48-hour window to:
1. Accumulate at stable prices (low volatility)
2. Set up positions for Monday's Wall Street open
3. Front-run the next directional move
This weekend is NOT a time to sit on the sidelines. It's a time to POSITION.
MONDAY CATALYST (Why Next Week Explodes):
Monday Jan 20 brings:
• Fresh institutional flow (new week, new capital)
• Post-expiry clarity (hedges unwound, direction clear)
• Technical breakout setup (4-day consolidation into explosive move)
• Macro calendar light (no major data = risk-on)
Historically, Mondays after major expiries see MOMENTUM CONTINUATION. If we're bullish into expiry (we are), we're typically MORE bullish post-expiry.
SECTION III: CURRENT MARKET STATUS
BITCOIN - $95,500: The Coiled Spring
Price: $95,691 (down -0.89% from Thursday, +5.2% on the WEEK)
24h Range: $95,134 - $97,193 (narrow consolidation)
Volume: $23.43B (solid, institutional)
Key Observation: 4-day range $94K-$97K = COMPRESSION
THE TECHNICAL PICTURE:
We're in a TEXTBOOK consolidation pattern. After the explosive $90K→$97K move earlier this week, Bitcoin is doing what healthy markets do: CONSOLIDATING. But this isn't distribution. This is RE-ACCUMULATION.
Here's the evidence:
✅ Higher lows: $95,134 (Friday low) vs $94,559 (Wednesday low)
✅ Volume declining: From $31B to $23B (normal in consolidation)
✅ RSI cooling: 64 (from 70 overbought) but STILL bullish zone
✅ Still above EMA20: $92,195 (short-term trend intact)
✅ Still above 50-day MA: ~$88K (medium-term uptrend solid)
This is what accumulation looks like. Price isn't dumping back to $90K. It's HOLDING $95K. Every dip to $95K gets BOUGHT. That's strength.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE:
Technical analysts identified 12 strong levels across daily (1D), 3-day (3D), and weekly (1W) charts:
• 4 support levels on 1D
• 2 supports + 2 resistances on 3D
• 2 supports + 3 resistances on 1W
The STRONGEST support levels:
• $91,475 (score: 72/100)
• $89,836 (score: 72/100)
• $95,503 (score: 69/100) ← We're RIGHT HERE
The CRITICAL resistance levels:
• $97,060 (score: 89/100) ← THE KEY
• $98,851 (score: 72/100)
• $114,000 (measured move target if $97K breaks)
Translation: We're sitting ON support with minimal resistance above. Break $97K and we GO.
THE $97K BARRIER (Why It Matters):
$97,060 has been tested MULTIPLE times this week:
• Tues: Hit $97,924, rejected
• Wed: Tested $97,193, rejected
• Thurs: Tested $97,371, rejected
• Friday: Consolidating $95K-$96K
Every resistance that gets tested multiple times WEAKENS. It's like hitting a wall with a sledgehammer. First swing? Wall holds. Second swing? Cracks appear. Third swing? Fourth swing? Fifth swing? WALL BREAKS.
We're on the 4th/5th test of $97K. And unlike previous tests (which came on declining volume), the NEXT test is coming post-options expiry with FRESH capital. That wall is about to SHATTER.
ETHEREUM - $3,200: The Quiet Accumulator
Current Price: ~$3,200 (holding key support)
Weekly Performance: +6.5% (outperformed BTC early week)
Key Level: $3,250 support MUST HOLD
ETHEREUM'S HIDDEN STRENGTH:
While Bitcoin gets all the headlines, Ethereum is quietly building one of the most BULLISH setups in crypto. Here's what's happening:
🔒 STAKING EXPLOSION:
• 36 MILLION ETH now staked (30% of total supply)
• Value: $119 BILLION locked
• Validator entry queue: 2-YEAR HIGHS
• Validator exit queue: 6-MONTH LOWS
• BitMine Immersion: Added $600M in staking this week (now $6B total)
What does this mean? 30% of ETH supply is LOCKED and ILLIQUID. It CAN'T be sold. Can't hit exchanges. Can't create sell pressure. It's GONE from circulating supply.
Compare that to Bitcoin: Only ~13-14% of BTC is locked in various protocols. Ethereum has DOUBLE the supply lock. That's a MASSIVE supply squeeze building.
📈 ON-CHAIN METRICS EXPLODING:
• Network transactions: 2M per day (up from 1.2M in December)
• Total Value Locked (TVL): $75.29B (doubled from $44B in April)
• New wallets created: 393,600 in a SINGLE DAY (Jan 14 ATH)
• Stablecoin market cap on ETH: $160B+ (exponential growth)
This isn't speculation. This is REAL USAGE. Ethereum isn't just a store of value like Bitcoin. It's a FINANCIAL OPERATING SYSTEM. DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, tokenized assets—everything runs on ETH.
And when usage goes up + supply gets locked? Price has only ONE direction to go.
💰 INSTITUTIONAL CONVICTION:
Tom Lee (BitMine CEO, Fundstrat): "2026 is the year of Ethereum. $250,000 target when ETH reaches full adoption."
Standard Chartered Bank: "$7,500 ETH by end of 2026. $40,000 by 2030."
ChatGPT AI forecast: "ETH $4K-$5K base case, $7K-$9K bull case by late 2026."
These aren't moonboy YouTubers. These are BANKS. INSTITUTIONS. WALL STREET.
When Standard Chartered puts a $7,500 price target on ETH, you LISTEN.
THE ETH/BTC RATIO PLAY:
Current ETH/BTC ratio: 0.0335
Historical range: 0.08 during altseasons
If ETH just returns to historical altseason levels vs BTC, that's a 2.4x OUTPERFORMANCE.
Bitcoin $95K → $150K = 58% gain
Ethereum $3,200 → $10,800 = 238% gain (if ratio hits 0.08)
This is the ASYMMETRIC opportunity nobody's talking about.
🎯 SECTION IV: THE NEXT WEEK PLAYBOOK (Jan 20-26 Battle Plan)
MACRO CALENDAR (What's Coming):
Monday Jan 20: Martin Luther King Jr. Day (US markets CLOSED)
• Lower volume BUT crypto trades 24/7
• Opportunity for pre-positioning before Tuesday Wall Street open
Tuesday Jan 21: Wall Street Returns
• Fresh institutional capital enters
• Post-holiday risk-on sentiment
• Technical levels tested with VOLUME
Wednesday-Thursday: Fed Speakers
• Multiple Fed officials speaking on monetary policy
• Any dovish comments = crypto PUMP
• Watch for hints on rate cuts in 2026
Friday Jan 24: Industrial Production Data
• Economic data = volatility trigger
• Weak data = rate cut hopes = risk-on = crypto UP
REGULATORY OUTLOOK:
CLARITY Act Status: Delayed but negotiations ongoing
Key Players:
• Mike Novogratz: "Will get done soon. Talked to 10+ Senators. This is final stages."
• David Sacks (White House Crypto Czar): "Passage as close as it's ever been."
• Tim Scott (Senate Banking Chair): "Everyone at table working in good faith."
Expected Timeline: Late January markup (revised bill)
Market Impact: When it DOES pass, expect $5-10K Bitcoin pump
The delay is actually BULLISH. It means we get a BETTER bill without the trash provisions that banks tried to sneak in. Patience = Profit.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS:
BASE CASE (65%): Monday-Tuesday Breakout to $98K-$100K
Setup:
• Weekend consolidation $94.5K-$96.5K
• Monday pre-positioning by smart money
• Tuesday Wall Street open brings volume
• $97K breaks with conviction
• Fast move to $98K-$100K (low volume node)
Targets:
• Mon-Tue: $97K break → $98K
• Wed-Thu: $98K hold → test $100K
• Friday: $100K psychological level
How to Play:
• HOLD current positions (BTC $90-92K entries)
• Take 10% profit at $97.5K
• Take 20% profit at $100K
• Trail stops to $96K
• Let 70% run to $105K+
BULL CASE (25%): Explosive Move to $105K+
Catalysts:
• CLARITY Act surprise fast-track
• Major institution announces BTC purchase
• BlackRock continues $500M+ daily buying
• $100K breaks with FOMO momentum
In this scenario:
• Bitcoin → $102K-$105K by end of week
• Ethereum → $3,800-$4,200 (altseason IGNITES)
• Total crypto market cap → $3.5T+
How to Play:
• Add 5% on $100K break (momentum chase)
• Tight stops at $98K
• Take profits at $105K
• Prepare for PARABOLIC move
BEAR CASE (10%): Weekend Dip to $92K-$93K
Triggers:
• Unexpected macro shock
• Profit-taking accelerates
• Weak weekly close below $95K
In this scenario:
• Pullback to $92K-$93K (retest breakout)
• Ethereum → $3,050-$3,150
• BUT this becomes BUY THE DIP opportunity
How to Play:
• Set limit buys at $92.5K-$93K
• Size 15-20%
• Stop $91K
• Target $100K+ (discount entry)
Even in bear case, $90K support SHOULD hold. Below $90K = re-evaluate. But probability is LOW (<5%).
SECTION V: UPDATED TRADING POSITIONS
CURRENT PORTFOLIO STATUS:
BITCOIN:
• Entry: $90K-$92K ✅
• Current: $95,500 (+3.8% to +6.1%)
• Trailing Stop: $94,000 (give it breathing room for weekend)
• Position Size: 40% (FULLY LOADED)
• Status: HOLD for $100K+
ETHEREUM:
• Entry: $3,100-$3,200 ✅
• Current: $3,200 (+0% to +3.2%)
• Stop: $3,100 (tight but fair)
• Position Size: 35%
• Status: ACCUMULATE on dips to $3,150
Monday Morning (Pre-Wall Street):
• If BTC still $95K-$96K → ADD 10% (this is THE entry)
• If BTC breaks $97K → ADD 5% momentum (tight $96K stop)
• If BTC below $94K → WAIT for $93K retest, then LOAD
SECTION VI: WHAT THE SMART MONEY IS SAYING (Crypto Twitter Pulse)
1. Tom Lee (@TomLeeUpdates) - BitMine CEO / Fundstrat:
"2026 is the year of Ethereum. We're staking $6 billion ETH, generating $374M annually. BitMine stock will hit $5,000 per share when Ethereum reaches $250,000. The mini crypto winter is OVER. 2026 is when crypto prices recover with stronger gains in 2027-2028."
OUR TAKE: Tom Lee manages $13 BILLION in Ethereum. When he says "mini winter is over," you LISTEN. His $250K ETH target sounds insane until you realize he's betting his entire company on it.
2. Standard Chartered Bank Analysts:
"Ethereum $7,500 by end of 2026. $40,000 by 2030. Institutional adoption, stablecoin growth, and tokenization will drive ETH to become the settlement layer of Wall Street. Bitcoin will hit $150,000 in 2026 driven by ETF inflows."
OUR TAKE: When a BANK gives you a $7,500 ETH target, they're not speculating. They're POSITIONING their clients. This is forward guidance.
3. Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) - Galaxy Digital CEO:
"CLARITY Act will get done soon. I've talked to 10+ Senators from both parties. Everyone is making efforts. This is the tense, final stage of lawmaking. It WILL happen."
OUR TAKE: Mike has direct access to Senators. If he says it's happening, it's happening. The delay is strategic, not fatal.
4. Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) - ARK Invest CEO:
"Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it a superior scarce asset to gold when demand rises. In our 2026 Outlook, Bitcoin is THE inflation hedge of this decade. Ethereum's productivity (staking yield, fee burn, DeFi) gives it compounding value that Bitcoin lacks."
OUR TAKE: ARK manages BILLIONS. Cathie Wood isn't a crypto influencer—she's a Wall Street legend. When she calls BTC "superior to gold," institutions pay attention.
5. Greeks.live Analysts:
"Bitcoin successfully broke through $95,000 resistance, breaking out of nearly two-month consolidation. Block trades reached $1.7 billion (40% of daily volume). This is institutional ACCUMULATION. Ethereum remains in $3,400 consolidation range but percentage gain was larger than BTC."
OUR TAKE: When 40% of volume is institutional block trades, retail is NOT driving this. Whales are LOADING.
BONUS: THE MOST INSANE AI/CRYPTO NEWS THIS WEEK
🚨 DEEPSEEK AI PREDICTS CARDANO WILL HIT $12 IN 2026 (3,000% GAIN)
Remember that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek that caused a $300 BILLION crypto market crash in January 2025 because it proved you could run advanced AI on cheap hardware? Well, now it's making PRICE PREDICTIONS.
DeepSeek AI's 2026-2027 Crypto Forecasts:
• Bitcoin: $150,000 by end of 2026
• XRP: $10 by 2027 (current $2.12 = 372% gain)
• Cardano (ADA): $12 by early 2026 (current $0.39 = 2,977% gain)
Now, let's be REAL for a second. Cardano at $12? That's a $420 BILLION market cap (4x its 2021 ATH). Is that happening? Probably not. But here's what's FASCINATING:
An AI that CRASHED the crypto market a year ago by proving AI efficiency is now BULLISH on crypto. That's... ironic? Bullish? Confusing? All of the above?
The wildest part? DeepSeek's Bitcoin $150K prediction MATCHES Standard Chartered Bank's institutional forecast. When AI and Wall Street agree, maybe there's something there.
But Cardano $12? Come on. We love hopium, but let's not go full degen. ADA needs to:
1. Actually ship meaningful updates (perpetually "coming soon")
2. Gain institutional adoption (currently... crickets)
3. Compete with Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche (good luck)
That said, if you bought ADA at $0.30 because DeepSeek told you to and it somehow hits $12, you're a LEGEND and we want to interview you.
The REAL story? AI models are now making crypto predictions, trading crypto (remember the MEXC AI trading competition?), and influencing markets. We're living in the future, and it's WEIRD. And we love it.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter provides market analysis and trading intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, understand the risks, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. The Rekt Reports and its authors are not registered financial advisors. Trade responsibly.
